Decision Support System For Risk Management A Case Study

Decision Support System For Risk Management A Case Study-8
Consequently, such damage has not been studied from the long-term perspective of wind damage risk.In other words, wind damages in forests were only observed on the basis of location, volume and area in order to determine economic losses (Matsuzaki and Nakata, 1994) and ignored the impact of crop characteristics and local airflow patterns.

A growth model Silve-no-Mori was linked with Forest TYPHOON to estimate wind damage risk over a 50-year period.

After assessing the wind damage risk, risk stands were displayed using a geographic information system.

These tropical cyclones show similar phenomenon in the northern hemisphere where there is an eye at the centre with low pressure and a large counterclockwise revolving vortex (Foster and Boose, 1995).

Typhoons usually move at between 5 and 15 m s and are associated with strong winds and heavy rainfall.

The Toyamaru typhoon destroyed approximately 300 000 m (2003) statistically analyzed the data of abiotic damaged stands from forest insurance databases and found that planted forests older than 41 years are more likely to incur wind damage.

The Forestry Agency showed that approximately 52 per cent of planted forests were more than 36 years old in 2002 ( thus, the extensive existing semi-mature and mature stands in Japanese forests could incur enormous damage from typhoons.typhoons and hurricanes) will tend to increase in peak wind intensity, although the numbers of cyclones may decrease in the future.Wind damage resulting from two historically catastrophic typhoons (the Toyamaru typhoon in 1954 and the Isewan typhoon in 1959) is well documented.Don) stands in Himi region, Toyama Prefecture, Japan.A wind risk management (WRM) tool, Forest TYPHOON, was developed using a modified version of GALES and the airflow model WAs P.A decision support-based approach has been developed in order to help recommend silvicultural treatments for reducing typhoon wind damage in Japanese forests.A case study was conducted on three management scenarios (no thinning, light thinning and heavy thinning) for sugi ( (L.f.) D. The decision support approach integrated models and tools including a mechanistic/empirical wind damage risk assessment model Forest TYPHOON, which includes a modified version of the wind damage risk model, geographical analysis of the losses and effects of storms, and an airflow model, wind atlas analysis and application program.In addition, decision tree analysis provided information on stand characteristics related to wind damage.Approximately 90 per cent agreement was found between the wind damage assessment using Forest TYPHOON and the outputs of the decision trees.Forest TYPHOON has already been developed and validated using typhoon wind damage data from Himi by Kamimura (2007).The decision support approach was constructed from a growth model Silve-no-Mori, Forest TYPHOON, Arc GIS (ESRI Ltd, Redlands, CA) and the decision tree algorithm CART.


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